Health Sciences
Haruna Umar Yahaya; Mohammed Tanimu; Olisaemeka Obi
Abstract
Background: Despite efforts to improve road safety, Nigeria continues to have a high number of traffic crashes and fatalities. This has contributed to Nigeria's death rates. The study aimed to model and anticipate the trend of road traffic collisions and fatalities in Nigeria. Methods: The ...
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Background: Despite efforts to improve road safety, Nigeria continues to have a high number of traffic crashes and fatalities. This has contributed to Nigeria's death rates. The study aimed to model and anticipate the trend of road traffic collisions and fatalities in Nigeria. Methods: The study employed a descriptive retrospective approach to examine the trend of road traffic crashes and their associated fatalities in Nigeria. The study used secondary data from the Federal Road Safety Corps (FRSC) database spanning sixty years, from 1960 to 2020. Results: Between 1960 and 2020, Nigeria had an average of 19014 road traffic collisions and 6104 fatalities. The number of road traffic crashes in Nigeria increased from 1961 (10963) to 1976 (40881), then began to fall to (9694) in 2020, although road traffic fatalities continue to rise somewhat. The ARIMA (1,1,0) and Random walk models were shown to be the best fitted time series models for predicting the number of crashes and associated fatalities. Conclusion: Trend analysis in road traffic accidents remains an important component of ongoing efforts to minimize fatalities and injuries while promoting safer and more sustainable transportation systems. This study will investigate and synthesize current trends in road traffic accidents and fatalities, giving light on the factors that influence the road safety landscape.
Epidemiology
Mohammed Tanimu; Emem Victor Umanah; Haruna Umar Yahaya
Abstract
This study presents a thorough analysis of family planning methods and forecasting models using data from the Family Health Care Clinic in Abuja, Nigeria. The study reveals a significant variation in the usage of modern family planning methods. Notably, male condoms exhibit a wide range of usage patterns, ...
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This study presents a thorough analysis of family planning methods and forecasting models using data from the Family Health Care Clinic in Abuja, Nigeria. The study reveals a significant variation in the usage of modern family planning methods. Notably, male condoms exhibit a wide range of usage patterns, as indicated by their relatively high standard deviation (624.657). Female condoms, on the other hand, demonstrate the highest coefficient of variation (CV) at 90.44%, suggesting the greatest relative variation among the methods. Skewness and kurtosis measurements reveal distinct usage patterns, with injectables and intrauterine contraceptive devices (IUCD) displaying right-skewed and heavy-tailed distributions. In contrast, female condoms and implants exhibit negatively skewed and light-tailed distributions. The study highlights that the exclusive use of condoms by males surpasses all female family health care methods practiced during the study period, albeit showing a declining trend with seasonal variations. The Model (N), an ARIMA(1,0,2)x(2,1,2)12 model, emerges as the most accurate forecasting model during the estimation period with P-values indicating their statistical significance, and also exhibiting the lowest RMSE, MAE, MAPE, AIC, HQC, and SBIC values, and a negative MPE. This suggests that it provides the most precise predictions while maintaining relative simplicity. These findings hold significant implications for family planning programs and healthcare decision-making in Abuja, Nigeria.
COVID-19
Joseph Oyepata Simeon; Joseph Opeyemi Tosin
Abstract
Retracted article
Background and Objective: Scientists and world leaders are still trying to understand COVID-19 and its potential global consequences. While there have been some successes, there are still many that remain unknown. This study provides an update report on the virological and immunological ...
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Retracted article
Background and Objective: Scientists and world leaders are still trying to understand COVID-19 and its potential global consequences. While there have been some successes, there are still many that remain unknown. This study provides an update report on the virological and immunological distribution and implications of the COVID-19 pandemic around the world from January 28th to February 3rd, 2022..Material and Method: The United Nations geoscheme was used to obtain data from 196 countries and regions around the world. The results were compiled and compared to the values obtained for the United States.Results: When available data was compared to that of the United States, the American continent had a higher mortality comparison factor than infection cases, whereas the European continents had a higher infectious comparison value than mortality value. With the exception of South Africa and Botswana, the African continents appear unconcerned about the value of mortality and infectivity.Conclusion: The new wave and virus variant have caused a resurgence in its global impact. There is a need to understand how Africa has survived all variants of the virus despite having few medical resources.
Epidemiology
Hulera Usman Kabido; Joseph Fuh Nfongeh; Victor Kolawole Fadayomi; Onyemachi Ifeanyi Adibe; Abdullahi Shuaibu Kabiru; Nafisat Tijjani Dalhat; Yahuza Jibrin Abubakar
Abstract
Background: Due to its persistent nature, ulcers brought on by Helicobacter pylori have been a significant public health concern. This study looked at how specific risk factors affected the prevalence of Helicobacter pylori infection among peptic ulcer patients visiting medical institutions in Lafia, ...
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Background: Due to its persistent nature, ulcers brought on by Helicobacter pylori have been a significant public health concern. This study looked at how specific risk factors affected the prevalence of Helicobacter pylori infection among peptic ulcer patients visiting medical institutions in Lafia, Nigeria. Methods: The blood and stool samples of 180 individuals (71 men and 109 women) were collected randomly, checked for H. pylori using test strips for H. pylori antibodies and antigens (Azure Biotech Inc.), and the feces also were grown on Columbia blood agar base (TITAN Biotech Ltd). Using a standardized questionnaire, some participant risk data was also gathered.Results: A positive culture method (CM) test result was obtained from 14/71 (19.72%) of the 71 male patients and 37/109 (33.94%) of the 109 female subjects out of a total of 210 subjects. For CM alone, it was discovered that female participants had a considerably greater incidence of Helicobacter pylori infection than their male counterparts (p=0.038). Nevertheless, all analytical techniques discovered no evidence of a significant difference between age groups (p>0.05). Only the blood antibody (BAB) approach showed a substantially greater prevalence (p=0.021) in married patients, with 79/116 (68.10%) reactive instances. The presence of drinking water source (p < 0.001, 0.001, 0.002 using CM, BAB, and SAG, respectively) and number of occupants per room (p < 0.001, 0.001, 0.002 using CM, BAB, and SAG, respectively) as potential risk factors for H. pylori infection was also demonstrated.Conclusion: The majority of risk factors that were taken into consideration for this study demonstrated a strong correlation with Helicobacter pylori infection in Lafia, Nigeria.
COVID-19
Samuel Olorunfemi Adams; Godwin Somto
Abstract
Background: COVID-19 has claimed the lives of millions of people in Nigeria and around the world during the last two years. It is a recognized global health crisis of our day, as well as a persistent threat to the earth. The goal of this study was to examine the trend and fit an Error Trend and Seasonal ...
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Background: COVID-19 has claimed the lives of millions of people in Nigeria and around the world during the last two years. It is a recognized global health crisis of our day, as well as a persistent threat to the earth. The goal of this study was to examine the trend and fit an Error Trend and Seasonal (ETS) exponential smoothing and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model to Nigeria's COVID-19 daily fatalities.Methods: A dataset of daily COVID-19 confirmed fatality cases was used in the investigation. Data was acquired from the Nigerian Centre for Disease Control (NCDC) web database between the 10th of July 2020 and the 2nd of December 2021. The ARIMA model and twelve (12) ETS exponential smoothing techniques were investigated using a dataset of COVID-19 pandemic deaths in Nigeria. The ARIMA and ETS exponential smoothing algorithms were evaluated using the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC), Hannan Quinn Information Criterion (HQC), and Average Mean Squared Error (AMSE) selection criteria.Result: The ARIMA (0,1,0) model was the best time series modeling for the coronavirus (COVID-19) epidemic in Nigeria since it had the lowest AIC=2863.51, BIC=2866.90, HQ = 2866.90, and AMSE = 0.55471 values.Conclusion: The ARIMA (0,1,0) model is preferred above the other thirteen (13) competing models based on daily confirmed COVID-19 deaths in Nigeria. This research would assist the Nigerian government in better understanding the pestilence's evolution pattern and providing adequate provisions, prompt mediation, and treatment to prevent additional deaths caused by the virus.
Epidemiology
Itse Olaoye; Akinola Ayoola Fatiregun; Ekun Opeyemi; David Adeleke; Tsemaye Jacdonmi; Stephen Fagbemi; Famokun Gboyega; Abiona Samuel; Adefesoye Victor Akinpelumi; Onyibe Ifeoma Rosemary
Abstract
Background: The last case of the indigenous Wild Polio Virus in Ondo state was in 2008, and the last Polio compatible infection was in 2010. Poliovirus transmission was stopped thanks to the World Health Organization's (WHO) standards, which included acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) surveillance. We wanted ...
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Background: The last case of the indigenous Wild Polio Virus in Ondo state was in 2008, and the last Polio compatible infection was in 2010. Poliovirus transmission was stopped thanks to the World Health Organization's (WHO) standards, which included acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) surveillance. We wanted to describe the state's polio surveillance performance during the last five years, from 2016 to 2020, using WHO-recommended measures and find areas where it could improve.Methods: Between January 2016 and December 2020, AFP case-based surveillance data was used to undertake a retrospective examination of records. Microsoft Excel was used for data processing, and Quantum Geographic Information System was used for mapping (GIS).Results: From 2016 to 2020, a total of 1,096 AFP instances were recorded, none of which were confirmed as Poliomyelitis. The bulk of the cases (77.2 percent) were found in children under the age of five. Males made up more than half of the cases (53.4%). More than 89 percent of reported cases received three or more OPV doses. Between 2016 and 2020, there was a 79 percent decline in reported incidents. Between 2016 and 2020, the average Non-Polio AFP rate was 11.2 per 100,000, with a stool adequacy of 98.4%.Conclusion: AFP surveillance in Ondo state met the minimum WHO targets during the study period, according to the findings. However, because of the possibility of poliovirus being imported from endemic countries, which might threaten Nigeria's polio-free status, all surveillance actors' sensitization and active case search should be strengthened, particularly in underperforming local government areas (LGAs).
Clinical Epidemiology
M.A. Bashir; A.I. Yahaya; Mukhtar Muhammad; Ashiru Hassan Yusuf
Abstract
Prehypertension is a borderline blood pressure status associated with both higher incidence of cardiovascular disease as well as higher risk of progression to hypertension. The rising burden of hypertension and prehyperension globally is a serious concern to all and sundry. This study aims to estimate ...
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Prehypertension is a borderline blood pressure status associated with both higher incidence of cardiovascular disease as well as higher risk of progression to hypertension. The rising burden of hypertension and prehyperension globally is a serious concern to all and sundry. This study aims to estimate the burden of prehypertension in Nigeria. Online searches of Google Scholar, PubMed and African Index Medicus were conducted and studies selected based on predefined criteria. 21 studies consisting of 25839 individuals conducted between 2011 and 2021 were included in the meta-analysis. The pooled prevalence of prehypertension in Nigeria was found to be 34%(95% CI: 30%-40%) translating to 41.4 million adult Nigerians. Males have higher prehypertension prevalence of 39.1% (95% CI: 30.9%-47.6%) than females with prevalence of 28.5% (95% CI: 21.2%-36.4%). Differences between sexes are not statistically significant. The region with the lowest prehypertension prevalence is North-East at 18%. The region with the highest prevalence of prehypertension is North-West at 43%. Differences between the regions are statistically significant. The pooled prevalence in rural settlements is 32% whereas the pooled prevalence for urban settlements is 37%. Differences rural and urban settlements were not statistically significant. In conclusion, the burden of prehypertension in Nigeria is high and represents a future burden of hypertension and other cardiovascular diseases
Epidemiology
Itse Olaoye; Akinola Ayoola Fatiregun; Stephen Fagbemi; Famokun Gboyega; Rosemary Onyibe
Abstract
Background: Acute gastroenteritis, a very common disease in humans affecting both children and adults, remains a major public health concern worldwide. Several groups of viruses have been reported as the causative agents of acute gastroenteritis. An outbreak of acute gastroenteritis with a high fatality ...
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Background: Acute gastroenteritis, a very common disease in humans affecting both children and adults, remains a major public health concern worldwide. Several groups of viruses have been reported as the causative agents of acute gastroenteritis. An outbreak of acute gastroenteritis with a high fatality rate was reported in Ondo State, Southwest, Nigeria, in September 2020. Methods: To provide a descriptive epidemiology of the outbreak, a field investigation was carried out in affected communities in September 2020. Results: Four Local Government Areas (LGA) were affected, with Odigbo LGA having the highest attack rate of 14.9 per 100,000 population. The epidemic curve was propagated in nature. 50 cases were reported with 21 deaths (42%). The outbreak primarily affected 15-year-olds (94%, n=47) and more males (58%, n=29). Conclusion: Poor sanitation, food, and water hygiene conditions in communities of the LGA visited were observed. The spread of the outbreak was probably facilitated by water sellers.
