Clinical Epidemiology
Farshad Kakian; Mohammad Ghasemi Palangi; Nahal Hadi
Abstract
Background: Urinary stones are one of the major health problems worldwide and a significant part of referrals to physicians. Also, growing antibiotics resistance is an important concern. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the prevalence of urinary stones and bacterial strains with antibiotic resistance ...
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Background: Urinary stones are one of the major health problems worldwide and a significant part of referrals to physicians. Also, growing antibiotics resistance is an important concern. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the prevalence of urinary stones and bacterial strains with antibiotic resistance in women admitted to shiraz, southwest of Iran, from 2014 to 2019. Methods: In this period, all women admitted to the Zeinabieh Hospital were evaluated. The frequency of urinary stones and bacterial strains and antibiogram patterns of bacterial isolates were investigated from 2014 to 2019.Antibacterial susceptibility testing was done by disk diffusion method, fulfilling the standard criteria of “Clinical and Laboratory Standards Institute (CLSI) Performance Standards for Antimicrobial Susceptibility”. Results: Out of 101 isolates, the identified gram-negative bacteria were E. coli (68.3%), Klebsiella (6.9%), Enterobacter (6.9%), Pseudomonas (5%), Proteus (1%), and Acinetobacter (1%). Of gram-positive strains, Coagulase-positive Staphylococci (5.9%), coagulase-negative Staphylococcus (CONS) (3%) and Non-Hemolytic Streptococci (2%) were identified. Also, the frequency of urinary tract stones was about 5%. Four cases of kidney stones were associated with E. coli and one case with Klebsiella. All isolates had the highest resistance to co-trimoxazole (62.5%), Ampicillin and Nalidixic acid.Conclusion: In this study, no association was found between the type of bacteria and urinary stone. From the variable bacteria isolated, the highest rate of E. coli (as an important pathogen) was confirmed. Also, most of the bacterial isolates were resistant to multiple antibiotics, although Amikacin and nitrofurantoin (as the empirical therapy in our hospital) were dominated.
COVID-19
Jose Luis Turabian
Abstract
Background: It's unclear whether vaccination individuals against SARS-CoV-2 protects family members in the same way. Objective: The assessment of risk factors for SARS-CoV-2 transmission from index cases with COVID-19 breakthrough infection in completely vaccinated patients to fully vaccinated family ...
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Background: It's unclear whether vaccination individuals against SARS-CoV-2 protects family members in the same way. Objective: The assessment of risk factors for SARS-CoV-2 transmission from index cases with COVID-19 breakthrough infection in completely vaccinated patients to fully vaccinated family members. Methods: From February 1 to November 30, 2021, an observational, longitudinal, and prospective research of families with one primary case of COVID-19 breakthrough infection was done in a general medicine practice in Toledo, Spain.Results: Thirteen primary cases of COVID-19 breakthrough infection in 13 families with at least one other family member were included, of which 9 were positive secondary cases (sick) and 8 were negative partners (healthy) properly vaccinated. Being a woman, being over 45 years old, being a social-health professional, being an ethnic minority, and having chronic conditions all increased the likelihood of developing COVID-19 in fully vaccinated contacts and main cases. Although vaccination 2ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 had a higher effectiveness than BNT162b2 mRNA, none of these risk or protective factors were statistically significant.Conclusion: Young women, social health workers, ethnic minority groups, and people with chronic diseases are the completely vaccinated contacts with the highest risk of having COVID-19, after primary cases also vaccinated in the family, in Toledo (Spain), when the delta variant became dominant but before the rise of omicron.
Epidemiology
Nezal Azh; Seyyedeh Zahra Hajiasghari
Abstract
Introduction: Hospitals may have an adverse effect on the environment. The World Health Organization (WHO) introduced the concept of Green Hospital to reduce these complications while also improving the environment. The purpose of this study was to assess how many hospitals in Qazvin met Green Hospital ...
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Introduction: Hospitals may have an adverse effect on the environment. The World Health Organization (WHO) introduced the concept of Green Hospital to reduce these complications while also improving the environment. The purpose of this study was to assess how many hospitals in Qazvin met Green Hospital standards.Methods: This descriptive-observational study was carried out in all of the hospitals in Qazvin that were included in the study via the census sampling method. The standard green hospital questionnaire was used to collect data, which was completed with environmental experts through interviews and document observation. This questionnaire has 96 questions and is divided into eight dimensions: environmental, energy, hazardous materials, water, sewage, greenhouse gas emissions, external water consumption, material, and environmentally friendly purchasing management. Each question is graded on a three-point Likert scale ranging from 0 to 2.Results: This study included nine hospitals. Six were teaching/public (5 teaching hospitals and 1 Social Security Hospital), and three were public. The average ratio of active beds to approved beds was 90%, with private hospitals reaching more than 100% (131%). The mean achievement rates for the first through eighth dimensions were 70.08, 74.07, 74.07, 60.88, 40.87, 27.77, and 31.48, respectively. The overall mean score for meeting Green Hospital standards was 57.46%.Conclusions: Although hospitals achieved higher achievement rates in some dimensions, overall results showed low achievement rates. As a result, their managers and employees must learn how to prevent environmental degradation.
COVID-19
Jose Luis Turabian
Abstract
BackgroundMost people with COVID-19 receive care at home, increasing the likelihood of exposure for household members.ObjectiveTo study the prevalence and characteristics of secondary cases in families after the appearance of a primary caseMethodologyAn observational and retrospective study of families ...
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BackgroundMost people with COVID-19 receive care at home, increasing the likelihood of exposure for household members.ObjectiveTo study the prevalence and characteristics of secondary cases in families after the appearance of a primary caseMethodologyAn observational and retrospective study of families with at least one polymerase chain reaction (PCR) confirmed COVID-19 primary case was conducted from March 15 to December 25, 2020, in a general medicine office in Toledo, Spain. Socio-demographic and clinical variables were compared between primary and secondary cases in the families. The outcome of interest was secondary attack rate of SARS-CoV-2 within the family.Results39 families with a primary case (average size 3.4 members) with a total of 132 cohabitants were included. There were 22 cohabitants with negative PCR (22/92 = 24%), 70 secondary cases with positive PCR (Secondary attack rate 76%), of which 25 were asymptomatic (25/70 = 36%), and a cohabiting new-born. A high frequency of people from ethnic minorities, low household income and complex families was found, both in primary and secondary cases. The secondary cases with respect to the primary ones were more women, younger, students and with a lower socio-occupational level, with more asymptomatic cases, and milder symptomatic cases.ConclusionsIn this context, the prevalence of secondary domestic contacts is very high, and it occur in young women, being asymptomatic or mild. The high secondary attack rate suggests the importance of the pre-symptomatic or early symptomatic period of COVID-19, as well as the possible failure to comply with isolation measures.
Health Sciences
Paulraj Manickavelu; Babu S; Anand Babu Kaliyaperumal
Abstract
Background: Allied and Healthcare Education (AHE), which prepares students to work as physical therapists, occupational therapists, nutritionists, dietitians, medical laboratory technicians, and other health and allied professionals. AHE students' healthy lifestyles may aid in the formation of a healthy ...
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Background: Allied and Healthcare Education (AHE), which prepares students to work as physical therapists, occupational therapists, nutritionists, dietitians, medical laboratory technicians, and other health and allied professionals. AHE students' healthy lifestyles may aid in the formation of a healthy community, which is more likely to provide effective patient care. Several studies have been carried out to investigate the global prevalence of physical activity (PA) and Sedentary Behavior in the general population. The present study aims to assess the level of diurnal physical mobility and sedentary behavior among AHE students in Pondicherry.Methods: The prevalence study included 158 AHE undergraduate students, with data collected using the International Physical Activity Questionnaire (IPAQ) and reported in metabolic equivalents (MET).Results: Among 158 study populations, it was found that 86 (54.4%) university students practiced low level of physical mobility with a mean MET of 318.5, and 44 (27.8%) students practiced moderate physical mobility with a mean MET value of 1260.9, and only 28 (17.7%) students performed high levels of physical mobility with a mean MET value of 5250.5.Conclusion: The study concluded that the majority of AHE students have altered their physical mobility behavior. The study also found that a higher percentage of students were physically inactive and that this puts them at risk of developing early illness.
Occupational Epidemiology
Amanuel Godana Arero; Godana Arero; Shimels Hussien Mohammed; Sahar Eftekhari
Abstract
Background and objective: Low back pain (LBP), as a musculoskeletal disorder, remains a common health problem and is one of the most prevalent occupational injuries affecting adults living in both developed and developing countries. To increase the power and improve the prevalence estimates of LBP among ...
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Background and objective: Low back pain (LBP), as a musculoskeletal disorder, remains a common health problem and is one of the most prevalent occupational injuries affecting adults living in both developed and developing countries. To increase the power and improve the prevalence estimates of LBP among the working Ethiopian population, a comprehensive meta-analysis was carried out. Methods: A comprehensive systematic literature search was conducted through multiple international electronic bibliographic databases such as Web of Science, Pub Med, EMBASE, Scopus, and Google Scholar. Population-based studies with the prevalence of LBP among the working population living in Ethiopia were included. Meta-analyses, meta-regression, and sensitivity analysis was conducted. Funnel plot symmetry visualization followed by Begg’s rank correlation, and Egger’s regression asymmetry test methods were performed to detect the existence of publication bias. Heterogeneity between studies was assessed by using the Cochrane Q and I2 statistics. Results: Overall, 719 articles were identified and 13 articles with 6513 participants met the inclusion criteria for meta-analyses. The pooled point and twelve-month prevalence of LBP among the working Ethiopian population was 49% (95% CI: 40-58) and 56% (95% CI: 49-62), respectively. Conclusion: The results showed a high prevalence of LBP among the working Ethiopian population, especially among teachers. We believe that prevention strategies addressing the early onset of LBP among the working population would most likely be the answer to the burden of LBP on future economies in Ethiopia.
COVID-19
Kyosuke Ono
Abstract
Background: A mathematical investigation of the reasons for the fifth wave's quick expansion and reduction in Tokyo, Japan, is required to avoid the spread of subsequent COVID-19 infections. Methods: Using the simple IR theory underlying the susceptible-infectious-removed (SIR) hypothesis of infectious ...
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Background: A mathematical investigation of the reasons for the fifth wave's quick expansion and reduction in Tokyo, Japan, is required to avoid the spread of subsequent COVID-19 infections. Methods: Using the simple IR theory underlying the susceptible-infectious-removed (SIR) hypothesis of infectious disease epidemics, infected persons (I), infection rate, and testing/isolation rate are determined from accessible data of daily positive cases (R) and testing numbers. Results: The rapid spread of illness from late July to mid-August was owing to a drop in the number of people tested to half that of weekdays during the Olympic Games' four and three-day vacations. The maximum number of daily positives would have been lowered to two-fifths of the actual positives in early August if the number of weekday tests had been maintained during these holidays and would have fallen monotonically thereafter. The infection rates mean value fell steadily from 0.65 in late August to around 0.25 by the end of September. The significant increase in vaccination rates is mostly to blame for the fall in infection rates. In Tokyo, the impact of mRNA-based vaccines on infection prevention and increased vaccination rates could reduce the infection rate to 1/2 on September 10 and 1/3 by the end of October. Conclusion: According to the findings, a new infection like the delta variant can be suppressed to less than the fifth wave by increasing vaccination rates, eliminating three consecutive holidays, and implementing a precautionary testing system that maintains the same number of tests on weekends as on weekdays in the event of a rapid spread of infection in an emergency.
Cancer Screening
Fatih Kara; Bekir Keskinkilic; Murat Turkyilmaz; Fahriye Unlu; Selin Dundar; Erkin Aribal; Serap Gultekin; Aysenur Oktay
Abstract
Introduction: In Turkey, a population-based breast cancer screening program for women aged 40 to 69 years old was recently introduced. The goal of this study was to document early outcomes and assess the program's success.Method: This study looked at the 348,638 women who were screened in 2016. For end ...
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Introduction: In Turkey, a population-based breast cancer screening program for women aged 40 to 69 years old was recently introduced. The goal of this study was to document early outcomes and assess the program's success.Method: This study looked at the 348,638 women who were screened in 2016. For end results, all data was gathered from the national centralized reporting system and the Cancer Registry database. For benign discoveries, Breast Imaging-Reporting and Data System (BI-RADS) 1-2 were applied, and for recalls, BI-RADS 0, 4, or 5 were utilized, depending on the level of suspicion. The study looked at the age distribution, recall rate, cancer detection, and interval cancer rates. The stages of identified malignancies were examined and compared to those of the nonscreened group throughout the same time frame.Results: In the screening population, 43.2 percent of women were between the ages of 40 and 49, and 56.8% were between the ages of 50 and 69. The age range of 50–69 was responsible for 70% of screen-detected malignancies. The total recall rate (n = 19,607) was 5.6 percent. The malignancy rate for BI-RADS 5 recalls was 70.2 percent, 19.2 percent for BI-RADS 4, and 1.7 percent for BI-RADS 0 recalls. Screen-discovered malignancies were detected at a rate of 3.2 per 1000 screening exams (n = 1,120). When compared to the Non screened group, the screened group had a larger percentage of early-stage illness (54.3%). (46.7 percent). Interval cancers were discovered in 231 women (0.66 per 1000 screened women).Conclusion: Turkey's recently launched population-based breast cancer screening program appears to be viable and successful, according to preliminary results. According to this study, the breast cancer screening program should be sustained, with coverage of the target group rising.
COVID-19
Kuok Ho Daniel Tang
Abstract
Vaccination has offered the hope of restoring life to pre-COVID-19 normalcy. However, new COVID-19 cases have continued to emerge and have increased in certain regions even with increasing vaccination coverage. This study aims to explore the correlations between daily COVID-19 case fatality rates, vaccination ...
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Vaccination has offered the hope of restoring life to pre-COVID-19 normalcy. However, new COVID-19 cases have continued to emerge and have increased in certain regions even with increasing vaccination coverage. This study aims to explore the correlations between daily COVID-19 case fatality rates, vaccination coverage as well as daily new cases and deaths of COVID-19 in Malaysia. It aims to compare the pre- and post-vaccination COVID-19 case fatality rates and examine if any difference between the rates is statistically significant. It also aims to identify the main predictors of COVID-19 case fatality rates. This study obtained the data of daily new cases and deaths of COVID-19, as well as the daily vaccination coverage in Malaysia from official platforms and government offices for non-parametric statistical analysis. It explored the Spearman’s correlations between daily COVID-19 case fatality rates, daily new COVID-19 cases and deaths as well as the vaccination coverage in Malaysia. It examined the difference in the pre- and post-vaccination daily COVID-19 case fatality rates with Mann-Whitney U Test. It constructed a multiple regression model to identify the significant predictors of the daily case fatality rates. This study shows that daily COVID-19 case fatality rates are positively correlated with daily new COVID-19 cases and deaths, and vaccination coverage. It reveals that post-vaccination case fatality rates are lower than pre-vaccination and the difference is statistically significant. People fully vaccinated per 100 population is a significant predictor of the decline of daily case fatality rates.
HIV/AIDS
Ayouba A. Fofana; Nimetcan Mehmet
Abstract
Background: In Africa, HIV is one of the most serious public health issues. The purpose of this study was to look into the prevalence and incidence rates of HIV/AIDS in West Africa across all age ranges and population groups.Methods: This is a comprehensive study of published and unpublished studies ...
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Background: In Africa, HIV is one of the most serious public health issues. The purpose of this study was to look into the prevalence and incidence rates of HIV/AIDS in West Africa across all age ranges and population groups.Methods: This is a comprehensive study of published and unpublished studies on HIV/AIDS prevalence and incidence in West Africa. All publications published between 2010 and 2020 that were retrieved from databases, as well as other records containing information on the topic under consideration, were examined.Results: The comprehensive assessment of the literature generated 13 papers with data on the prevalence and incidence of HIV after applying the inclusion, exclusion, and quality criteria. These items came from nine different countries in West Africa. The prevalence rate of HIV in a specific group ranged from 1.4 percent to 54.9 percent in this article review.Conclusions: The review found that HIV prevalence in important demographics in West African nations was high. It also revealed that women are the ones who are most affected. HIV prevalence and incidence differ from country to country. In comparison to other nations, HIV prevalence in important populations was greater in Nigeria and lower in Benin.
COVID-19
Hooman Angoorani; Soheila Masoudi; Molood Jafari Fesharaki; Bita Zoghalchi; Paniz Jahani; Marzieh Urumieh
Abstract
Background: Following the resumption of football training and competitions during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, it was necessary to tighten up the hygiene protocol and impose restrictions such as prohibiting spectators from entering stadiums and the detection of positive disease cases, ...
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Background: Following the resumption of football training and competitions during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, it was necessary to tighten up the hygiene protocol and impose restrictions such as prohibiting spectators from entering stadiums and the detection of positive disease cases, particularly among sub clinically infected players. The purpose of our study was to find out how common COVID-19 is among professional football players and to see if regular PCR testing and symptom recording are adequate screening methods in football.Study design: A cross-sectional retrospective study was used as the study design.Method: Periodic polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing are used to evaluate athletes and other involved people for breaks in the transmission chain and to preserve their health. From March to November 2020, 784 players from Iran's prime and second division leagues participated in this study. The symptoms of the participants, as well as the results of the PCR testing, were recorded.Results: The results showed that 107 cases (13.6%) had positive PCR tests, with 52 Premier League players (10.4%) and 55 second-tier League players among them (19.3 percent). 41.1 percent of individuals who had positive PCR testing were symptom-free, while 17.5 percent of those who tested negative experienced at least one symptom. Myalgia was the most commonly reported symptom among symptomatic participants (7%).Conclusion: Due to the large number of asymptomatic patients, we advocate combining a periodic PCR test with serologic tests for the diagnosis of COVID-19 in football players to improve diagnostic accuracy.
Health Sciences
Abdel-Hady El-Gilany
Abstract
Statistical consultation has recently increased in medical and health research. Most medical researchers do not have the time to learn specialist statistical knowledge and abilities in addition to their clinical experience in many medical fields. There have been numerous reports about statistical misuse ...
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Statistical consultation has recently increased in medical and health research. Most medical researchers do not have the time to learn specialist statistical knowledge and abilities in addition to their clinical experience in many medical fields. There have been numerous reports about statistical misuse and errors in published health-care studies. This has raised concerns about the nature of statistical consultation. The role of biostatisticians in health research is unclear. This study discusses several aspects of statistical consultation, such as definition, the consultant's essential knowledge and skills, the structures of a successful consultation, and the ethical roles of both statistician and researcher. The purpose of this article is to educate scholars about statistical consultancy.
COVID-19
Mohammed Wasim; Sheethal Kuriakose
Abstract
Background: The global prevalence of lengthy COVID among youth remains unknown, demanding a thorough investigation of symptoms and post-COVID quality of life. The purpose of this study was to identify these symptoms and assess their quality of life.Methods: A census approach was used to poll 264 people ...
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Background: The global prevalence of lengthy COVID among youth remains unknown, demanding a thorough investigation of symptoms and post-COVID quality of life. The purpose of this study was to identify these symptoms and assess their quality of life.Methods: A census approach was used to poll 264 people in Bengaluru, India. Demographic information, COVID symptoms, and SF-36 questionnaire responses were gathered. Using ICD-10-CM codes, symptoms were detected, and statistical analyses were done.Results: Long COVID symptoms were found in 43.2% of subjects, with 23.5% experiencing Ongoing COVID-19 Symptoms (OCS) and 15.9% experiencing post-COVID-19 Syndrome (PCS). Gender differences in symptom patterns were discovered. Males had a higher incidence of pain (p =.0005), whereas females had a higher incidence of hair loss (p = 0.00009), headaches (p = 0.02), and irregular periods (16.2%). The duration of symptoms ranged from less than one month (46.6%) to more than five months (10.2%). In the Quality-of-Life assessment, mental health was the most affected domain.Conclusion: This study found a considerable prevalence of extended COVID in youth that lasted more than 5 months after recovery. The impact on quality of life is significant, highlighting the critical need for standardized post-COVID care strategies. The findings of this study contribute to a better knowledge of the changing landscape of extended COVID, suggesting sustained attention and specific therapies.
Health Sciences
Haruna Umar Yahaya; Mohammed Tanimu; Olisaemeka Obi
Abstract
Background: Despite efforts to improve road safety, Nigeria continues to have a high number of traffic crashes and fatalities. This has contributed to Nigeria's death rates. The study aimed to model and anticipate the trend of road traffic collisions and fatalities in Nigeria. Methods: The ...
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Background: Despite efforts to improve road safety, Nigeria continues to have a high number of traffic crashes and fatalities. This has contributed to Nigeria's death rates. The study aimed to model and anticipate the trend of road traffic collisions and fatalities in Nigeria. Methods: The study employed a descriptive retrospective approach to examine the trend of road traffic crashes and their associated fatalities in Nigeria. The study used secondary data from the Federal Road Safety Corps (FRSC) database spanning sixty years, from 1960 to 2020. Results: Between 1960 and 2020, Nigeria had an average of 19014 road traffic collisions and 6104 fatalities. The number of road traffic crashes in Nigeria increased from 1961 (10963) to 1976 (40881), then began to fall to (9694) in 2020, although road traffic fatalities continue to rise somewhat. The ARIMA (1,1,0) and Random walk models were shown to be the best fitted time series models for predicting the number of crashes and associated fatalities. Conclusion: Trend analysis in road traffic accidents remains an important component of ongoing efforts to minimize fatalities and injuries while promoting safer and more sustainable transportation systems. This study will investigate and synthesize current trends in road traffic accidents and fatalities, giving light on the factors that influence the road safety landscape.
Health Sciences
Abdel-Hady El-Gilany
Abstract
Background: Human Wellbeing (HWB) is synonymous with health and should be included when assessing health status at the individual and community levels.Methods: In this narrative literature review, Google Scholar and PubMed were searched for published full-text English publications and websites that included ...
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Background: Human Wellbeing (HWB) is synonymous with health and should be included when assessing health status at the individual and community levels.Methods: In this narrative literature review, Google Scholar and PubMed were searched for published full-text English publications and websites that included the keywords wellbeing, definition, types, measurement, and importance. All collected literature was evaluated for inclusion in the review. The most relevant articles were selected.Results: This overview outlines the various definitions of HWB and associated concepts. The aspects and public health benefits of well-being (WB) were discussed. The many tools used to measure HWB were listed. Finally, the public health concerns associated with WB were described.Conclusion: There is a need for effective collaboration among public health specialists, psychologists, sociologists, and physicians to operationally define the various socially and culturally relevant terminology associated with WB, which should be considered more than the absence of disease.
Epidemiology
Satvinder K Dhaliwal; Dana Dabelea; Angela E Lee-Winn; Deborah H Glueck; Greta Wilkening; Wei Perng
Abstract
Background: In utero exposure to increased inflammation caused by acute experiences may negatively impact on child neurodevelopment, but little is known about the effects of low-grade chronic inflammation. We wanted to investigate prenatal inflammation, as indicated by biomarkers of low-grade chronic ...
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Background: In utero exposure to increased inflammation caused by acute experiences may negatively impact on child neurodevelopment, but little is known about the effects of low-grade chronic inflammation. We wanted to investigate prenatal inflammation, as indicated by biomarkers of low-grade chronic inflammation, as an in utero programming method for neurodevelopment, and see how much of these associations are explained by perinatal factors. Methods: We utilized linear regression to analyze the relationship between prenatal C-reactive protein, interleukin-6, and tumor necrosis factor-α and offspring Child Behavior Check List scores for total problems, externalizing and internalizing behaviors in 489 mother-offspring pairs from the Healthy Start cohort, based in Denver, Colorado, USA. We made sequential adjustments for perinatal correlates. Model 1 considered maternal age, gestational age at blood draw, and child age. Model 2 included further adjustments for mother race/ethnicity, followed by household income in Model 3 and pre-pregnancy body mass index (BMI) in Model 4. Finally, we used the maternal Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale and Perceived Stress Scale scores as measures of psychosocial stress. Results: In Model 1, children of mothers with C-reactive protein in the fourth quartile had a 3.82 (95% CI: 0.94, 6.70) unit higher t-score for total problems compared to those in the first to third quartiles. The inclusion of household income and pre-pregnancy BMI in the fully adjusted model reduced the impact estimate to 3.11 (-0.45, 6.67). We found a similar pattern in externalizing behavior and across models for interleukin 6. Conclusions: Maternal inflammation is associated with worse neurobehavioral outcomes in children. This association was influenced by higher pre-pregnancy BMI and lower household income.
Epidemiology
Kyosuke Ono; Katsuaki Kikuchi
Abstract
Background: It is extremely important to use existing data to study the transition of infection and removal rates, as well as the influence of vaccination, in the major epidemic waves 6, 7, and 8 in Tokyo, and to develop an effective countermeasure to suppress the epidemic. Methods: We developed ...
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Background: It is extremely important to use existing data to study the transition of infection and removal rates, as well as the influence of vaccination, in the major epidemic waves 6, 7, and 8 in Tokyo, and to develop an effective countermeasure to suppress the epidemic. Methods: We developed a new IR model of the epidemic in which I and R comprise both symptomatic and exposed individuals. Based on this model, numerical methods were developed to calculate infection and clearance rates, as well as the vaccine effect. To minimize the maximum number of daily positives Rd, we developed a mechanism for controlling the number of people examined T based on the Rd rate. Results: The transitions between epidemic waves 6 and 8, as well as the overall vaccination effect in reducing infection rates, were clarified. Using the measured link between removal rate and tested individuals, the suppressive impact of T control was recreated for waves 6 to 8. As a result, wave 6 showed a significant drop in the maximum Rd from one tenth to one half of the actual data. Although the test system was greatly reinforced in waves 7 and 8, the T control was still able to cut the maximum Rd in half when implemented within 10 days of the epidemic waves' onset. Conclusion: The novel IR theory, the calculation method for predicting infection and removal rates, and the T control will all give formidable instruments for future epidemic suppression.
Epidemiology
Mohammed Tanimu; Emem Victor Umanah; Haruna Umar Yahaya
Abstract
This study presents a thorough analysis of family planning methods and forecasting models using data from the Family Health Care Clinic in Abuja, Nigeria. The study reveals a significant variation in the usage of modern family planning methods. Notably, male condoms exhibit a wide range of usage patterns, ...
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This study presents a thorough analysis of family planning methods and forecasting models using data from the Family Health Care Clinic in Abuja, Nigeria. The study reveals a significant variation in the usage of modern family planning methods. Notably, male condoms exhibit a wide range of usage patterns, as indicated by their relatively high standard deviation (624.657). Female condoms, on the other hand, demonstrate the highest coefficient of variation (CV) at 90.44%, suggesting the greatest relative variation among the methods. Skewness and kurtosis measurements reveal distinct usage patterns, with injectables and intrauterine contraceptive devices (IUCD) displaying right-skewed and heavy-tailed distributions. In contrast, female condoms and implants exhibit negatively skewed and light-tailed distributions. The study highlights that the exclusive use of condoms by males surpasses all female family health care methods practiced during the study period, albeit showing a declining trend with seasonal variations. The Model (N), an ARIMA(1,0,2)x(2,1,2)12 model, emerges as the most accurate forecasting model during the estimation period with P-values indicating their statistical significance, and also exhibiting the lowest RMSE, MAE, MAPE, AIC, HQC, and SBIC values, and a negative MPE. This suggests that it provides the most precise predictions while maintaining relative simplicity. These findings hold significant implications for family planning programs and healthcare decision-making in Abuja, Nigeria.