Document Type : Original Article
Authors
Department of Statistic, University of Abuja, Abuja, Nigeria
Abstract
Background: Despite efforts to improve road safety, Nigeria continues to have a high number of traffic crashes and fatalities. This has contributed to Nigeria's death rates. The study aimed to model and anticipate the trend of road traffic collisions and fatalities in Nigeria.
Methods: The study employed a descriptive retrospective approach to examine the trend of road traffic crashes and their associated fatalities in Nigeria. The study used secondary data from the Federal Road Safety Corps (FRSC) database spanning sixty years, from 1960 to 2020.
Results: Between 1960 and 2020, Nigeria had an average of 19014 road traffic collisions and 6104 fatalities. The number of road traffic crashes in Nigeria increased from 1961 (10963) to 1976 (40881), then began to fall to (9694) in 2020, although road traffic fatalities continue to rise somewhat. The ARIMA (1,1,0) and Random walk models were shown to be the best fitted time series models for predicting the number of crashes and associated fatalities.
Conclusion: Trend analysis in road traffic accidents remains an important component of ongoing efforts to minimize fatalities and injuries while promoting safer and more sustainable transportation systems. This study will investigate and synthesize current trends in road traffic accidents and fatalities, giving light on the factors that influence the road safety landscape.
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