Document Type : Original Article

Authors

• Mohammed Tanimu ¹
• Emem Victor Umanah ²
• Haruna Umar Yahaya ³

¹ University of Abuja, Abuja, Nigeria

² Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science, University of Abuja

³ Department of Statistic, Faculty of Science, University of Abuja, Abuja, Nigeria

Abstract

This study presents a thorough analysis of family planning methods and forecasting models using data from the Family Health Care Clinic in Abuja, Nigeria. The study reveals a significant variation in the usage of modern family planning methods. Notably, male condoms exhibit a wide range of usage patterns, as indicated by their relatively high standard deviation (624.657). Female condoms, on the other hand, demonstrate the highest coefficient of variation (CV) at 90.44%, suggesting the greatest relative variation among the methods. Skewness and kurtosis measurements reveal distinct usage patterns, with injectables and intrauterine contraceptive devices (IUCD) displaying right-skewed and heavy-tailed distributions. In contrast, female condoms and implants exhibit negatively skewed and light-tailed distributions. The study highlights that the exclusive use of condoms by males surpasses all female family health care methods practiced during the study period, albeit showing a declining trend with seasonal variations. The Model (N), an ARIMA(1,0,2)x(2,1,2)12 model, emerges as the most accurate forecasting model during the estimation period with P-values indicating their statistical significance, and also exhibiting the lowest RMSE, MAE, MAPE, AIC, HQC, and SBIC values, and a negative MPE. This suggests that it provides the most precise predictions while maintaining relative simplicity. These findings hold significant implications for family planning programs and healthcare decision-making in Abuja, Nigeria.

Keywords

• Family Health
• Forecasting
• Contraceptive Prevalence Rate
• Nigeria

Main Subjects

• Reproductive